Friday, September 16, 2005

US Polls

Bush's overall approval rating slipped to around 40% in most polls, and now even his favorability rating slipped for the first time to an equal or lower level than his disapproval rating. But it seems mismanaging (yeah, severe understatement) the relief effort after Hurricane Katrina is only part of the expanation - Bush's Katrina ratings, while negative, are still depressingly close to even. His support is still not down to the rock-solid 35-40% fundie base.

But more interesting is a poll on Iraq, the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted September 8-11. While on Bush's handling of the Iraq war (40% approve 58% disapprove) and on whether invasion was a bad idea (53% yes 46% no) numbers didn't change, on the question of pullout, now we have:

Date Stay as long
as 'needed'
Withdraw if
too many killed
9/8-11/05 35% 19% 41% 5%
7/25-27/03 37% 33% 26% 4%

Maybe this is the Cindy Sheehan effect.

(This is an update to my expression of polls scepticism three months ago and my premature optimism two weeks later.)


At 1:38 AM, Blogger Eric Gordy said...

This might be a bit of a halo effect -- bad performance in one area affects perceptions about everything else. In this case, it might be permitting people to express the opinion they have had all along. The big question is not so much about Bush, but whether the response to Katrina has been taken as so emblematic that it has discredited the whole conservative antigovernment approach. Time will have to tell on that one, I've seen too many transformative moments come and go (Abu Ghraib, for example) with no transformation.

At 3:35 PM, Blogger josh narins said...

These favorability ratings, it is meaningless.

Do you know who the "most admired" figure in the US since America started the "most admired" poll, around 60 years ago?

Jacqueline Kennedy, in the months after her husband was shot.

What did it mean? That they wanted her to be President?

It is like a sympathy thing.

Or a "she didn't sniffle much, good for her" (of course, she did cry).

Or a "she acted just like I'd want her to" which I guess is meaningful.

For better poll data, go to Dr. Limerick. This is the overall Bush approval graph, this is his personal Bush Index, and here are his derived fudge factors for different pollsters.

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