Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Polls Scepticism

What the heck, one post if I'm here.

There is much buzz across the blogosphere about new US polls showing a fall in various ratings of Bush and the war. I am sceptical about a turning point, however: there hasn't been much change in the numbers that count. Here are two of them (the latter in two versions from two polls), via pollingreport.com:

"Do you think the U.S. made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military force against Iraq?" [June 8-12 Pew poll]

Right decision: 47%, Wrong decision: 45%

What this means when contrasted with the often touted numbers about whether the war was worth the costs: there are some 10% of Americans who think it will be worth the costs - after more blood has been paid for it.

"Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?" [June 8-12 Pew poll]

Keep troops: 50%, Bring home: 47%

"Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should now do..." [June 6-8 Gallup poll]

Send more troops: 10%, Same as now: 26%, Withdraw some: 31%, Withdraw all: 28%

The "Withdraw some" camp in the latter obviously involves those who for some reason believe a total, but phased withdrawal somehow means less mess than the alternatives. Note that the "Withdraw all" camp, those who supposedly realised that the occupiers won't keep the situation from turning worse (in fact help it become worse), slumps back from a 30% glass ceiling every few months. I'd say 75-80% of Americans still live in fairyland.

To close, I repeat what I wrote elsewhere: Bush and the neocon puppetmasters aren't in real danger until some of the core numbers - Bush's overall job rating and 'War on Terror' job rating, approval of the original decision to go to war, support for withdrawal and/or lack of support for "finishing the mission" - skirt 40%.


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