Now Even I Sense Change

In comments on several blogs recently, I spread my scepticism towards the US Left's optimism, an optimism regarding a turn of public opinion that argues from recent polls on the Iraq war. I argued, it doesn't matter whether Americans think the war was worth it or whether they approve Dubya's handling of the war: these are general questions, not hard policy questions, nor the questions that might matter in people's minds after being exposed to a lot of spin. What has true weight is whether they still approve the original decision to go to war, and whether they want to keep troops or demand them to return home.

Now, in the June 20-22 AP/Ipsos poll, the original war decision's support fell to 42%. At the same time, those who favor immediate pullout rose to 37% - still far from majority, and less than the 46% favoring pullout in the June 8-12 Pew Research Center poll (a number containing those who buy the necessity of a staged withdrawal), but much more than the 28% in the June 6-8 Gallup poll.

In other news, there is something on the move in the progressive base of the Democratic party. Here is a Dailykos diary of someone convinced of the need of an immediate pullout, after meeding independent trade unionits fron Basra. Steve Gilliard demands an immediate pullout for some time now, and he even attacks a liberal proponent of staged pullout (the war in the comments is maybe more significant than the posts itself), and the Billmon spinoff Moon of Alabama attacks even atrios for not denouncing the government for WMD lies.

The apparent catalysts for these changes were back-stabbing attacks by mainstream Democrat representatives (like Biden, Edwards) against DNC chair Dean, after Dean dared to speak badly of Republicans.