Sunday, March 20, 2005

Looming US Financial Crisis Part XLVIII

I'll extend this post with some more analysis later; for now, I link directly to the 2004 4th Quartal/full year US International Transactions table[M$ Excel], and point out the bottomline: it's line 70, "Statistical discrepancy (sum of above items with sign reversed)". Why the sign has to be reversed (and not put as the very last line) I don't know, the issue is: for four consecutive quartals now (i.e. all of 2004), net capital pouring into the USA and smaller items failed to balance the net outpouring of money paid for goods (i.e. the trade deficit).

This item, which as yet lacks a handy name, is the deficit that really can put pressure on currencies and economies (rather than at times dominant subtotals like the over-hyped trade deficit).

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