Composition Of Iraq Challenge 2.0
I earlier posed the challenge of producing a source for Juan Cole's claim: "Sunni Arabs .. in Iraq .. are 20% at most". The unstated reason I had strong suspicions Mr. Cole is talking hot air this time was: I knew Censuses in Iraq were conducted without a question on religion (nor was a normal sociological sampling possible during Saddam or the Occupation).
In the Comments, EuroGaullist confirmed this by digging up the story of, and data from, the latest Iraqi census: the one of 1997, kept under wraps by Saddam, but parts not looted or burnt handed over to the UN on 8 August 2003 by the American government. After a little digging around, I found regional maps based on this census - which allow me a very rough guess, based on the generally reported regional distribution. With the approximations that
- the Sunni Arabs South of Baghdad and along the Saudi border can be matched up with Shi'a Arabs to the North;
- the Sunni (and Shi'a) Arabs in Kirkuk can be matched up with Kurds to the South;
- Niniveh province (included Mossul) is at least 20% Sunni Arab and 30% Kurd;
- Baghdad is half Shi'a Arab;
I get: out of then 22.1 million, 48% is Shi'a Arab, 28% is Sunni Arab, 19% is Kurd, 5% rest. (Note: data is missing in two 100% Kurdish and one 100% Sunni districts.)
So, again: I dare you to find a source implying numbers anything like Juan Cole claims!
2 Comments:
Wouldn't Saddam's regime have a motive to overestimate the number of Sunnis and underestimate the number of Shia?
It could have, but as I said, they in fact did never estimate or measure the numbers of Sunnis and Shi'a.
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