Friday, May 06, 2005

More British Election: Nazis

At this point five seats were declared. All held and kept by Labour, with strongly falling percentages. However, what's depressing that there is apparently a strong swing to... BNP. Yes, the British pseudonazi outfit. UPDATE: with three more seats declared, the trend is even more alarming. In Rotherham, Labour lost 11.1%, while BNP has gone from zero to 6.6%.


At 6:04 AM, Blogger josh narins said...

It's been all over Europe since 9/11.

Xenophobic parties are picking up the 3rd party vote, as Greens lose the same.

The total estimated at this time between the top three almost stayed the same. Within 1% (37-33-22 vs 40-33-20) of last time.

At 12:20 PM, Blogger DoDo said...

"Xenophobic parties are picking up the 3rd party vote, as Greens lose the same."

In Europe, that would be fourth-fifth-sixth parties. In Britain, Greens gained votes, tough not much.

The BNP is not simply a xenophobic party - it is a virulent neo-Nazi party, with direct connections to pogrom organisers & participants. That's the category of say the German NPD - that is, worse than Haider's FPÖ, Pim Fortuyn's list, Le Pen's FN, even Vlaams Blok. They got 5% on average where they had candidates.

You are right that the swing away from NuLab wasn't that large in the end - the initial results were mostly constituencies with large Labour majorities, where Bliar's scare tactics ("a vote for LibDem is a vote for the Tories" etc.) had no traction.

At 12:24 PM, Blogger DoDo said...

Back to BNP, what seemed most alarming to me is that BNP apparently gained its votes from Labour: from centre-left to ultra-right??? But a day later, I think it rather has to do with Labour voters staying home or deserting to the Cons, while the Nazis gain voters from both Tories and non-voters - for in most of these consituencies I looked at, there was no BNP candidate in 2001.

At 1:09 PM, Blogger Ken said...

There's a lot of racial tension in those areas. But actually, Dodo, I think you may be wrong about it swinging from the Labour Party to the BNP; I think in many cases the Tory campaign's focus on immigration has ssen the BNP make some alarmingly large gains in the mixed-ethnicity seats in Yorkshire and Lancashire.

At 2:05 PM, Blogger DoDo said...

"But actually, Dodo, I think you may be wrong about it swinging from the Labour Party to the BNP"

Well, I conceded just that in the post before :-)

At 2:21 PM, Blogger DoDo said...

josh, I checked the 2001 results - a bit different than what you say: Lab 40.7% - Con 31.7% - LibDem 18.3%. So the 2005 results I see right now at BBC mean Lab -4.5%, Con +1.5%, LibDem +4.4%. The change in the small parties vote can't yet be evaluated from this: North Ireland still counting, that'll greatly increase it.

At 2:55 PM, Blogger DoDo said...

I guess we have a final result for the big three now:

Labour 356 seats (a 64-seat majority - the exit poll erred just by 2), Tories 198, LibDem 62. (Rest: 30 seats.)

So 33 Labour MPs could keep Bliar in check - provided all the opposition plays along. But I guess we'll see several examples in the next four years of Bliar (or Brown) relying either on Tories or LibDem to push through some pro-business or authoritarian "reform".

At 4:31 PM, Blogger DoDo said...

Sorry, that above should be a 66-seat majority - the exit poll was exactly right!

The almost final percentages (a sury Tory seat will vote only next month): Lab 35.2% (-5.5%), Con 32.3% (+0.6%), LibDem 22.0% (+3.7%), rest 10.5% (+1.2%). Not as big a small-party rise as I wished, and much of it to the far-right.

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