Ukraine VI: Victory For Democracy

I just watched Yushchenko addressing the Orange crowd on Euronews after the Ukrainian Supreme Court annulled the second round of Presidential elections! The second round will be repeated on 26 December.

This is indeed great news. The Supreme Court's members were nominated by current President Kuchma, and they weren't famous of much independence - apparently, they sensed the changing times, or feared one step too far against public opinion. Just like the Parliament in the days earlier, first voting for a resolution declaring the elections marred by fraud and calling for the Electoral Committee's resigning, later voting down Yanukovych as responsible PM.

Now we have three weeks to watch. How will the media act? How will the Orange protesters act? How will the Yushchenko campaign attempt to reach out to voters in the Southeast and South? Will Yanukovych step back, or will the regime find a way to replace him? Does the regime plan some surprises?

President Kuchma's visit to Moscow the day before was certainly important - but what did they talk about? Did Kuchma inform him that the ship sailed away, or did they agree on some sinister action? Once the Orange protesters go home, authorities can take violent action easier - but the backlash could be huge, de-masking the regime in the eyes of Yanukovych voters, too. So I don't think Kuchma alone would be capable to pull off a coup. What should be kept a watch on is whether there will be any contact between Yushchenko and Putin.

Also, the West (or at least Europe) should act in a measured way, not offering up anything that might be made to look like threatening to the Southern and Southeastern voters.