Wednesday, June 16, 2004

Iraqi Poll Analysis

The CPA at last released its poll famed for some leaked disastrous results. The highlights in my view:

Approval/disapproval rates of institutions [page 6]:
CPA: 11%/79%
US military: 10%/81%
IGC: 28%/55%
the misused UN (listen Kerry!): 29%/57%

92% (!) see 'Coalition' troops as occupiers [p.35], 55% would feel more safe it troops left now (and 10% would feel just as safe), only 32% would feel less safe [p.37].

Asked about the likely motivations of the Resistance, out of a choice of ten, the three seen least likely were the US propaganda favourites [p.41]:

(True/Partially true/Not true)
want to reinstate the old regime: 9%11%/61%
are angry about lost Saddam-era privileges: 15%/17%/48%
do not want democracy: 17%/21%45%

Also, 67% totally agree (plus 12% somewhat agree), with just 9% disagreeing, that attacks increased because of loss of faith in the 'Coalition'[p.40]. And here is the approval/disapproval rate of politicians [p.15]:

Ali Sistani: 70%/20%
Moqtada al-Sadr 67%/29% (41% have a somewhat better, 40% a much better opinion of him!)
Ibrahim Jaferi 58%/38%
Ahmad al-Qubaisi 55%/29%
Abdul Azziz al-Hakim 51%/44%
Hare'eth al-Dhari 45%/27%
Muhsin Abdul Hamed 45%/35%
Muhammad Bahr al-Ulum 44%/49%
Adnan Pachachi 41%/50%
Abdul Karem al-Muhammadawi 31%/45%
Muwaffaq al-Rubaie 29%/61%
Iyad Allawi 23%/61%
Jalal Talabani 21%/74%
Massoud Barzani 19%/74%

For those not well versed in Iraqi politics, a short classification according to allegiances, based on my own memory/Juan Cole:

Sistani: independent Shi'a fundie cleric, close to SCIRI
al-Sadr: Sadrist (national-islamist Shi'a, with large militia, anti-occupation)
Jaferi, al-Ulum, al-Rubaie: Daawa (Shi'a fundies, have an ex-terrorist militia, was on IGC)
al-Hakim: SCIRI (pro-Iran Shi'a fundies with large militia, was on IGC)
al-Qubaisi, al-Dhari: Board of Muslim Scolars (Sunni Arab fundies, anti-occupation)
Hamed: Iraqi Islamic Party (Sunni Arab fundies, was on IGC)
Pachachi: IDP (mostly ex-monarchist exile, Sunni Arab nationalist, was on IGC)
al-Muhammadawi: Hizbullah (Shi'a Marsh Arab semi-fundiesm with major militia, left the IGC)
Allawi: INA (mostly ex-Baathist exile, was on IGC)
Talabani, Barzani: PUK resp. KDP (rival Kurdish semi-fundies, with large militias, rule over fiefdoms with some local democracy elements, was on IGC)


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